Fighting The Last War

To analyse is so much easier than to draw the right conclusions. In the latest issue of The Economist, you can read the Confessions of a risk manager



The anonymous risk manager skilfully analyses how it came to the credit crunch and the wrong assumptions he and his colleagues made before and during the crises. Basically, they were fighting the last war. However, when it comes to drawing conclusions, I'm not sure whether his suggestions really prepare him to fight the next war, in which he will have to deal with the next unknown unknowns which will be beyond what is normally expected.